Wheat (Safex) Prices

15-04-2026 - Over the past month, the price of wheat on the Safex market has decreased from 6,012.0 ZAR per ton to 5,702.0 ZAR per ton, indicating a downward trend in the raw material market. This decline suggests potential changes in supply or demand dynamics. Despite this, the forecast predicts an increase to 5,879.8 ZAR per ton, a 3.1% rise from the current price, suggesting an upward trend. However, this forecast comes with risks of market fluctuations affecting raw material prices.

The forecast attributes the upward price pressure primarily to supply factors, with significant impacts from inventories (57.8 ZAR per ton) and weather conditions (22.2 ZAR per ton). All data types, including demand, flows, and technical indicators, support this trend. However, recent analyses present a bearish outlook for the wheat market, contrasting with the forecast's prediction of a price increase to 5,879.8 ZAR per ton in the coming month.

The USDA's April 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projects U.S. wheat ending stocks to reach 938 million bushels, a 10% increase year-over-year and the highest level since the 2019/20 marketing year. This surplus is expected to exert downward pressure on wheat prices. Additionally, market analyses suggest that the bearish supply outlook, combined with a strong U.S. dollar, may continue to suppress wheat prices, potentially testing support levels around 550.00 ZAR per ton. These external sources indicate potential downward pressure on wheat prices in the near term, contrary to the forecast.