Why are Cocoa Prices so high?
09-12-2025 - Over the past month, the price of Cocoa ICE has experienced a significant decline, falling from $6,272 per metric ton to $5,701 per metric ton. This drop highlights a clear downward trend in the raw material market. The forecast anticipates a further decrease in Cocoa ICE prices to $5,450 per metric ton from the current $5,701 per metric ton, marking a projected decline of 4.4%. This trend poses a potential risk for stakeholders who depend on stable raw material prices.
The current forecast suggests substantial downward pressure on raw material prices, primarily influenced by demand factors, especially the global economy, with an estimated price impact of -$64 per metric ton. All data types, including flows, supply, and technical analyses, consistently report this trend.
Recent analyses support the forecast of a potential decline in cocoa prices over the next month, aligning with the projected price of $5,450 per metric ton. For example, a report from ChAI Insight dated December 5, 2025, forecasts a one-month price for ICE cocoa at $5,288 per metric ton, representing a decrease of $216 or 3.9% from the current price. This bearish outlook is attributed to factors such as long-term price trends and fluctuations in the Nigerian Naira.
The current forecast suggests substantial downward pressure on raw material prices, primarily influenced by demand factors, especially the global economy, with an estimated price impact of -$64 per metric ton. All data types, including flows, supply, and technical analyses, consistently report this trend.
Recent analyses support the forecast of a potential decline in cocoa prices over the next month, aligning with the projected price of $5,450 per metric ton. For example, a report from ChAI Insight dated December 5, 2025, forecasts a one-month price for ICE cocoa at $5,288 per metric ton, representing a decrease of $216 or 3.9% from the current price. This bearish outlook is attributed to factors such as long-term price trends and fluctuations in the Nigerian Naira.
What is the current / spot price of Cocoa?
Cocoa Price Today
December 9, 2025
Current Price
5701
$/t
What is the forecast for the price of Cocoa?
Cocoa Price Forecast
December 9, 2025
1 Month Forecast
5450
$/t
1 Year Forecast
3405
$/t
What are the short-term drivers of Cocoa prices?
Over the 1 Month horizon the outlook is bearish due to drivers such as: - Long term price trends - Movements in the Nigerian Naira - The shape of the futures curve (adjusted for the risk free rate and price volatility) Br(None) The top contrary drivers for the 1 Month horizon are: - EWMA-based technical analysis - Short term price trends
What are the long-term drivers of Cocoa prices?
Over the 1 Year horizon the outlook is bearish due to drivers such as: - Satellite-observed activity in Lagunes Region (Ivory Coast) - Bulk Goods exports from Ghana - EWMA-based technical analysis - The net positions of speculators on ICE Br(None) The top contrary drivers for the 1 Year horizon are: - Movements in the West African CFA Franc
Will the price of Cocoa go up?
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