Why are Cocoa Prices so high?
30-09-2026 - Over the past month, the price of Cocoa ICE has experienced a significant decline, falling from $6,648 per tonne to $5,521 per tonne. This decrease highlights a downward trend in the raw material market, suggesting possible changes in supply or demand dynamics. Despite this recent drop, the forecast predicts a rise in Cocoa ICE prices to $6,208 per tonne, representing a 12.4% increase from the current price of $5,521 per tonne. This suggests an upward trend, although there is a risk of market volatility impacting raw material prices.
The forecast indicates that upward price pressure on raw materials is primarily driven by technical factors, with a $285 per tonne impact, particularly from Futures Curve and Traders' Positions. However, supply data points to downward pressure, resulting in a mixed market outlook.
Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported that in October 2023, cocoa futures prices rose by 12% in London, from $3,676 to $4,102 per tonne, and by 9% in New York, from $3,500 to $3,822 per tonne. This increase is attributed to consecutive years of supply deficits and the anticipation of another deficit, which has led to price rallies. These insights align with the forecasted price increase for the ICE Cocoa market.
The forecast indicates that upward price pressure on raw materials is primarily driven by technical factors, with a $285 per tonne impact, particularly from Futures Curve and Traders' Positions. However, supply data points to downward pressure, resulting in a mixed market outlook.
Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported that in October 2023, cocoa futures prices rose by 12% in London, from $3,676 to $4,102 per tonne, and by 9% in New York, from $3,500 to $3,822 per tonne. This increase is attributed to consecutive years of supply deficits and the anticipation of another deficit, which has led to price rallies. These insights align with the forecasted price increase for the ICE Cocoa market.
What is the current / spot price of Cocoa?
Cocoa Price Today
September 30, 2026
Current Price
5521
$/t
What is the forecast for the price of Cocoa?
Cocoa Price Forecast
September 30, 2026
1 Month Forecast
6208
$/t
1 Year Forecast
2964
$/t
What are the short-term drivers of Cocoa prices?
Over the 1 Month horizon the outlook is bullish due to drivers such as: - Bulk Goods exports from Côte D Ivoire - The shape of the futures curve - Satellite-observed activity in Lacs Region (Ivory Coast) - The net positions of speculators on ICE Br(None) The top contrary drivers for the 1 Month horizon are: - Short term price trends
What are the long-term drivers of Cocoa prices?
Over the 1 Year horizon the outlook is bearish due to drivers such as: - The net positions of speculators on ICE - Movements in the Ghanaian Cedi - Satellite-observed activity in Western Region (Ghana) - Satellite-observed activity in Lagunes Region (Ivory Coast) Br(None) The top contrary drivers for the 1 Year horizon are: - Bulk Goods exports from Ghana
Will the price of Cocoa go up?
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1 Week
1 Month
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1 Year
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