Cocoa Prices

05-02-2026 - Over the past month, the price of Cocoa ICE has experienced a notable decline, dropping from $6,108 per tonne to $4,159 per tonne. This significant decrease underscores the volatility in the raw material market, potentially due to shifts in supply-demand dynamics or external economic influences affecting cocoa prices. The forecast anticipates a further decrease to $3,957 per tonne, representing a -4.9% change, which poses a risk for stakeholders dependent on stable raw material costs.

The current forecast suggests substantial downward pressure on cocoa prices, primarily driven by demand factors linked to the global economy, with an expected price impact of -$83 per tonne. Although technical data indicates potential upward pressure, the prevailing demand, flows, and supply data suggest otherwise.

Recent analyses present a bearish outlook for the ICE Cocoa market in the coming month, consistent with the forecasted price drop to $3,957 per tonne. According to Trading Economics, cocoa prices have recently fallen below $4,000 per tonne, largely due to expectations of a global surplus and ongoing inventory replenishment. StoneX, a consulting firm, projects a global surplus of 287,000 tons for the 2025/26 crop year and 267,000 tons for 2026/27, indicating a shift from previously tight market conditions. Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported a 4.2% year-over-year increase in global cocoa stocks to 1.1 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season. These factors contribute to the bearish sentiment in the cocoa market, supporting the anticipated price decline.