Soybean Oil Prices

05-02-2026 - Over the past month, soybean oil prices have experienced a notable increase, climbing from 49.47 ¢/lb to 55.66 ¢/lb. This rise suggests either heightened demand or constraints in supply within the raw material market. However, the forecast for Soybean Oil (CME) predicts a slight decrease to 54.86 ¢/lb, a 1.4% drop from the current price, indicating a generally stable to slightly declining trend with minimal risk of significant price volatility.

The current forecast highlights downward pressure on raw material prices, primarily influenced by Flows data, which has a -0.74 ¢/lb impact. Exchange Rates and Seaborne Imports & Exports are significant factors, although Demand and Supply data indicate upward pressure, resulting in mixed signals overall.

Recent analyses suggest a bearish outlook for the soybean market, with expectations of price declines in the coming month. Contributing factors include record U.S. production, weak demand from China, and a global oversupply. For example, July 2025 futures have decreased to $9.69 per bushel, a 5.43% drop from the previous month and a 5.18% decline from the same period in 2024. Additionally, trade tensions between the U.S. and China have significantly reduced U.S. soybean exports to China, with Brazil now supplying 71% of China's imports compared to the U.S.'s 21%. This analysis supports the forecasted downward trend in soybean prices.