Power - UK Baseload (EEX) Prices

09-12-2025 - Over the past month, the UK Baseload (EEX) price has dropped from £81.41/MWh to £70.28/MWh, indicating a downward trend in raw material costs. This shift may be due to changes in supply, demand, or other market conditions. However, the forecast predicts an increase to £75.92/MWh, an 8.0% rise from the current price, suggesting potential volatility in raw material costs with a forecasted increase of £5.64/MWh.

The forecast points to upward price pressure driven by technical data, with significant influences from calendar effects and the futures curve. However, there is a divergence in data types: while demand and technical indicators suggest price increases, flow data indicates a slight decrease in raw material prices.

Vattenfall's analysis presents a bearish outlook for the EEX Power market in December 2025. Despite initial bullish trends in the spot electricity market due to cooler temperatures and low wind feed-in, forward market prices have been declining. The 2026 base product fell from early November highs of €91/MWh to just over €87/MWh by late November, and further dropped below €85/MWh at the start of December. This decline is linked to weak gas prices, with the 2026 gas year trading at its lowest since March 2024, below €30/MWh. The ample supply of pipeline gas from Norway and LNG from the USA, along with above-normal medium-term temperature forecasts, contribute to this bearish scenario, contrasting with the forecasted price increase.