Natural Gas - Henry Hub Prices

05-02-2026 - Over the past month, the price of natural gas (Henry Hub) has seen a slight decrease, dropping from $3.523/mmbtu to $3.465/mmbtu. This modest decline suggests potential changes in supply-demand dynamics or seasonal influences affecting the market value of this raw material. Despite this recent dip, the forecast anticipates an upward trend, projecting a price of $3.864/mmbtu, which is an 11.5% increase from the current $3.465/mmbtu. This upward pressure on raw material prices is primarily driven by technical data, with a price impact of $0.147/mmbtu. Key factors include price signals contributing $0.110/mmbtu and the futures curve subtracting $0.095/mmbtu. All data types, such as demand, flows, and supply, support this trend.

However, recent market analyses suggest a potential decline in NYMEX natural gas prices over the next month, contrasting with the forecast's predicted increase to $3.864/mmbtu. On February 2, 2026, March gas futures fell by 25.7%, settling at $3.237 per million Btu. This drop was influenced by updated weather forecasts predicting milder temperatures and reduced heating demand. Analysts believe that much of the winter risk has already been priced in, and the return of production levels following winter storm disruptions further supports this downward trend.