Natural Gas - Henry Hub Prices

03-04-2026 - Over the past month, the price of natural gas at Henry Hub has fallen from $3.054/mmbtu to $2.8/mmbtu, indicating a downward trend in the raw material market. This decline suggests either reduced demand or increased supply. The forecast predicts a further decrease to $2.715/mmbtu, a 3.0% drop from the current price, pointing to a generally flat to downward trend. However, this comes with the risk of potential market volatility affecting raw material prices.

The current forecast presents mixed signals. Technical data indicates a downward pressure of -$0.061/mmbtu, influenced by Traders' Positions and the Futures Curve. Conversely, Flows and Supply data suggest upward pressure, creating uncertainty in price movements.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects the Henry Hub spot price to average nearly $3.80/mmbtu in 2026, a 13% reduction from their previous forecast. This adjustment is due to milder-than-expected weather in February, which has led to increased natural gas storage levels. Additionally, the EIA expects marketed natural gas production to rise, averaging 118 Bcf/d in 2026 and 121 Bcf/d in 2027, with significant contributions from the Haynesville, Permian, and Appalachia regions.

Overall, this outlook suggests a potential decrease in natural gas prices, consistent with the forecasted price of $2.715/mmbtu for the upcoming month.