Why are Aluminium Prices so high?
09-12-2025 - Over the past month, the price of aluminium has experienced a slight increase, rising from $2,830.34/t to $2,855.86/t. This modest uptick suggests potential changes in supply-demand dynamics or other economic influences affecting the market value. However, the forecast predicts a decrease to $2,749.26/t, a 3.7% drop from the current price, indicating a downward trend. This forecast highlights the risk of market volatility impacting raw material prices.
The forecast also points to significant downward pressure on raw material prices, primarily influenced by Flows data, which shows a negative impact of $47.09/t. Seaborne imports and exports are identified as the most influential factors, with all data types consistently indicating a decline.
Goldman Sachs projects that LME aluminium prices will fall to $2,350 per metric ton by the fourth quarter of 2026. This anticipated decrease is attributed to increased production in Indonesia and a growing market surplus. This projection aligns with the forecast of a price drop to $2,749.26/t in the coming month, suggesting a consensus on the downward trend in aluminium prices.
The forecast also points to significant downward pressure on raw material prices, primarily influenced by Flows data, which shows a negative impact of $47.09/t. Seaborne imports and exports are identified as the most influential factors, with all data types consistently indicating a decline.
Goldman Sachs projects that LME aluminium prices will fall to $2,350 per metric ton by the fourth quarter of 2026. This anticipated decrease is attributed to increased production in Indonesia and a growing market surplus. This projection aligns with the forecast of a price drop to $2,749.26/t in the coming month, suggesting a consensus on the downward trend in aluminium prices.
What is the current / spot price of Aluminium?
Aluminium Price Today
December 9, 2025
Current Price
2855.86
$/t
What is the forecast for the price of Aluminium?
Aluminium Price Forecast
December 9, 2025
1 Month Forecast
2749.26
$/t
1 Year Forecast
2678.44
$/t
What are the short-term drivers of Aluminium prices?
Over the 1 Month horizon the outlook is bearish due to drivers such as: - Bauxite exports from Brazil - Vehicles imports to France - EWMA-based technical analysis - Aluminium LME Closing Stock - Aluminium (CMX) Br(None)
What are the long-term drivers of Aluminium prices?
Over the 1 Year horizon the outlook is bearish due to drivers such as: - Short term price trends - The shape of the futures curve (adjusted for the risk free rate and price volatility) Br(None) The top contrary drivers for the 1 Year horizon are: - Movements in the Euro
Will the price of Aluminium go up?
.png)
1 Week
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
1 Year
The Latest Aluminium News
ChAI Blog
China’s aluminum cable exports surge 42% YoY in Jan–Oct, on track to exceed 250,000 metric tons for the full year — SMM Analysis
November 30, 2025
metal.com
Off-season atmosphere deepens, proportion of liquid aluminum expected to drop further in December
November 28, 2025
metal.com
Off-season atmosphere deepens, proportion of liquid aluminum expected to drop further in December
November 28, 2025
metal.com
Metals
Click here to see info on similar materials in the group
Frequently Asked Questions
Still have a question?
Contact us
Which suppliers or regions are the most reliable/unreliable right now from a supply chain perspective?
What are the key supply chain risks for the next quarter (climate events, wars, shipping route changes)?
Are there any substitution materials currently becoming more competitive?
Are there any current supply chain disruptions (strikes, port closures, weather events, shipping delays)?
What tariffs does the EU have with the US?
What are new government polices?
What raw materials are in short supply?
What are current freight rates?
Do your models/algorithms change for time horizons? (short term/long term)?
What is unique about what you do? Aren’t large hedge funds already doing something similar?
What kind of AI techniques are you using?
Our Risk / Compliance Department is concerned about model transparency - How do you ensure your models can be explained?
Can you expand on how the AI is used and how it's a differentiator?
Interested in further market insights, forecasts, cost models, downloadable data ?
We are making the companies whose products we depend on everyday more resilient
Speak to the team
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
*Please include your company email