This page combines ChAI’s commodity-price forecasts with the EU ETS carbon price and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) rules to estimate the future landed cost of importing raw materials into Europe. It separates the underlying commodity price from the carbon-related CBAM cost, and then shows how both could evolve under different market scenarios.
From 2026, all EU importers will need to submit verified CBAM reports showing the embedded emissions of their imported raw materials. Most manufacturers are still preparing for this requirement. If you’d like support generating compliant CBAM reports for your materials, enter your email below and our team will get in touch.
Get help preparing your CBAM reportsThese values form the basis of the CBAM reporting you will need to submit to EU regulators—covering embedded CO₂, ETS price, and total CBAM liability. If you need help assembling your official CBAM documentation, we can support you.
While this chart shows how CBAM will affect your future landed costs, you will also be required to produce regular CBAM emissions reports containing verified embedded CO₂ values.Most companies are still figuring out how to assemble these—ChAI can help.
What the scenarios mean
We show low, medium, and high scenarios that reflect different possible price paths for both:
• the underlying raw material price
• the EU ETS carbon price
The scenarios are generated using ChAI’s machine-learning forecasts for 12 months ahead, then extrapolated over five years using different growth-rate dampening factors. The “Base price” line shows the commodity cost without CBAM, while the “CBAM price” includes the embedded-CO₂ adjustment.
Estimated total landed cost under low, base, and high carbon-price paths for 2026.
Why 2026 matters
2026 is the first year when importers will pay CBAM charges based on embedded CO₂. It is also the first year in which CBAM payments and formal emissions reports become mandatory. These estimates help manufacturers understand potential near-term cost impacts as ETS free allocations begin to phase out.
How to read this analysis
This section summarises the most recent price movements and ChAI’s forecasts for both the raw material and Carbon Credits. It explains which data types are pushing the forecast up or down, and how balanced or risky the outlook is.
14-11-2025 - WTI prices remained relatively stable over the past month, with a minimal change of -0.01, closing at $58.69 per barrel on 13th November. The high was $61.79 on 23rd October, while the low was $57.46 on 16th October.
Our one month forecast for WTI raw material is $56.9/bl, a decrease of $1.79/bl or -3.0% from the latest price. Our analysis suggests a slightly higher chance of prices exceeding our forecast than falling short.
Our current forecast shows that Flows data has the most significant impact, reducing the price forecast by $1.71 per barrel. The key families within the Flows data are Seaborne Imports & Exports, contributing -$1.30, and Exchange Rates, contributing -$0.41. However, there is disagreement among the data types, with Demand and Technical data suggesting upward price pressure, while Flows and Supply data types indicate the opposite trend. Demand and Technical data types show an increase in price, while Flows and Supply data types show a decrease in price.
14-11-2025 - Carbon Credits (EUA ICE) prices rose by 5.9% over the past month, from €76.67 to €81.23 per tonne CO2. The high was €82.20 on November 4th, with the low matching the starting price on October 14th.
Our one month forecast for Carbon Credits (EUA ICE) is 82.84 €/t CO2, a 2.0% increase from the latest price. Our analysis suggests a balanced market risk around this forecast.
Our current forecast shows that Technical data has the most significant impact, increasing the price forecast by 2.5 €/t CO2. The Futures Curve and Calendar Effects families within Technical data contribute positively to this impact. However, there is disagreement among the data types, with Technical data suggesting upward price pressure while Demand data indicates the opposite. The Global Economy family within Demand data has a neutral impact of 0.0 €/t CO2. Overall, the forecast is influenced by Technical data but is conflicted due to differing signals from Demand data.
Key implementation dates for the EU and UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms.
Why these milestones are relevant
The cost of importing raw materials into Europe will increasingly depend on both the commodity price and the carbon price. These policy milestones determine when CBAM charges begin, how quickly free ETS allowances decline, and when the UK system starts mirroring the EU framework.
EU CBAM transitional phase — importers report embedded CO₂ quarterly.
Last year of free ETS allocations for covered sectors.
EU CBAM payments begin for iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser, electricity.
UK CBAM launch aligned with EU scope and methodology.
EU ETS cap tightens significantly — carbon prices expected to peak.
Prepare for CBAM Reporting Requirements
From 2026, EU importers must submit quarterly CBAM reports including embedded emissions, methodologies, and verified data. Most suppliers aren’t ready yet—and many manufacturers are unsure what is required.
If you’d like help generating your CBAM-compliant reports, enter your email below and the team will reach out.
*Please include your company email